1 thought on “How the Fed launched debt will affect the capital market”
Elsie
I. Impact on the capital market 1. From the recent performance of large -scale asset markets, the Federal Reserve TAPER expects to strengthen it, which once caused the VIX index that represents the degree of panic to 25. Index and US debt yields have picked up. In the future, as the Fed will open TAPER, it is expected that the US dollar index will continue to strengthen, US debt yields will rise, and the global stock market and commodity market fluctuations will further increase.
2. The current market has sufficient expectations for TAPER. After boots landing, the market has limited disturbances, but it is worth noting that with the landing of TAPER, the subsequent Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expects heating up, or it will be right. The market formed a certain disturbance.
3.taper has increased the cost of using funds for enterprises, which may not be conducive to the rise in U.S. stocks. For the A -share market, in recent years, A shares have gone out of their own independent market and have limited impact on A shares. In terms of bond market, the arrival of TAPER will pour a pot of cold water for the recently rising bond market. High interest rates will lead to a decline in bond prices, and the future bond market may weaken.
4. my country's monetary policy should also be based on "I", taking into account the cycle of cyclical adjustment. It is expected that the liquidity and abundant tone will not change during the year, but the monetary policy will not be increased. Rating. Shen Xinfeng, Assistant General Manager of the Institute of Northeast Securities Research Institute, said, "We calculate that the remaining time of my country's macro liquidity is not large, and the liquidity can be fully satisfied." Policy orientation is also a problem that needs to be considered and paid in the process of monetary policy regulation and control, but my country's economic foundation is more firm and monetary policy independence is stronger. At present, while my country's monetary policy maintains independence and adheres to "I", it is necessary to improve forward -looking. It is expected that the central bank will use a comprehensive multi -monetary policy tool to regulate market liquidity and interest rate level, increase the entity to the entity Economic support and maintain a safe and stable monetary financial environment.
. The Fed's November Debt Rehabilitation Plan The Federal Reserve ’s monthly purchase amount is 120 billion US dollars, and it will reduce $ 15 billion per month, including US $ 10 billion in Treasury bonds and 5 billion US dollar mortgage supports securities.
The committee stated that it made this decision because "since December last year, the economy has made substantial progress towards the goal of the committee." The statement emphasizes that the Fed does not preset routes, and the process will be adjusted if necessary. The Fed's move is in line with market expectations. Earlier, the Fed issued a series of signals that it would begin to gradually reduce the economic stimulus plan to respond to the new crown epidemic.
The Federal Reserve also slightly revised its views on inflation and acknowledged that the price increase was faster and longer than the forecast of officials, but still did not give up the word "temporary" with controversial "temporary". In view of the continuous rise in inflation, many market participants have predicted that the Fed will abandon the "temporary" wording.
The United States Federal Reserve announced on November 3 that it will decrease the scale of US $ 15 billion in assets by month from the later November, and adjust the speed of debt purchase depending on the view. At the same time, the Federal Reserve maintains the federal fund interest rate target range between zero to 0.25%.
I. Impact on the capital market
1. From the recent performance of large -scale asset markets, the Federal Reserve TAPER expects to strengthen it, which once caused the VIX index that represents the degree of panic to 25. Index and US debt yields have picked up. In the future, as the Fed will open TAPER, it is expected that the US dollar index will continue to strengthen, US debt yields will rise, and the global stock market and commodity market fluctuations will further increase.
2. The current market has sufficient expectations for TAPER. After boots landing, the market has limited disturbances, but it is worth noting that with the landing of TAPER, the subsequent Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expects heating up, or it will be right. The market formed a certain disturbance.
3.taper has increased the cost of using funds for enterprises, which may not be conducive to the rise in U.S. stocks. For the A -share market, in recent years, A shares have gone out of their own independent market and have limited impact on A shares. In terms of bond market, the arrival of TAPER will pour a pot of cold water for the recently rising bond market. High interest rates will lead to a decline in bond prices, and the future bond market may weaken.
4. my country's monetary policy should also be based on "I", taking into account the cycle of cyclical adjustment. It is expected that the liquidity and abundant tone will not change during the year, but the monetary policy will not be increased. Rating. Shen Xinfeng, Assistant General Manager of the Institute of Northeast Securities Research Institute, said, "We calculate that the remaining time of my country's macro liquidity is not large, and the liquidity can be fully satisfied." Policy orientation is also a problem that needs to be considered and paid in the process of monetary policy regulation and control, but my country's economic foundation is more firm and monetary policy independence is stronger. At present, while my country's monetary policy maintains independence and adheres to "I", it is necessary to improve forward -looking. It is expected that the central bank will use a comprehensive multi -monetary policy tool to regulate market liquidity and interest rate level, increase the entity to the entity Economic support and maintain a safe and stable monetary financial environment.
. The Fed's November Debt Rehabilitation Plan
The Federal Reserve ’s monthly purchase amount is 120 billion US dollars, and it will reduce $ 15 billion per month, including US $ 10 billion in Treasury bonds and 5 billion US dollar mortgage supports securities.
The committee stated that it made this decision because "since December last year, the economy has made substantial progress towards the goal of the committee." The statement emphasizes that the Fed does not preset routes, and the process will be adjusted if necessary. The Fed's move is in line with market expectations. Earlier, the Fed issued a series of signals that it would begin to gradually reduce the economic stimulus plan to respond to the new crown epidemic.
The Federal Reserve also slightly revised its views on inflation and acknowledged that the price increase was faster and longer than the forecast of officials, but still did not give up the word "temporary" with controversial "temporary". In view of the continuous rise in inflation, many market participants have predicted that the Fed will abandon the "temporary" wording.
The United States Federal Reserve announced on November 3 that it will decrease the scale of US $ 15 billion in assets by month from the later November, and adjust the speed of debt purchase depending on the view. At the same time, the Federal Reserve maintains the federal fund interest rate target range between zero to 0.25%.